🔗 Share this article

Government closures are a repeat feature of US politics – however this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity between both major parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave since both political parties can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Votes aimed at ending the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as both parties – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.

These are several key factors in which things feel different in 2025.

1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues

Democratic supporters has been demanding for months that their party more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate their responsiveness.

Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown early this year. Now he's holding firm.

This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate they can take back some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.

Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.

The Democrats are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on expiring health insurance subsidies and GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.

Additionally, they're attempting to restrict the President's use of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done in international assistance and various federal programs.

Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity

The administration leader along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of reductions in government employment that have featured the current presidential term so far.

The President himself said last week that the shutdown had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "Democrat agencies".

Administration officials stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary described this as "budgetary responsibility".

The extent of possible job cuts is still uncertain, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.

The budget director has previously declared the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts of the country, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

3. There's little trust on either side

Whereas past government closures have been characterised by extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.

Instead, animosity prevails. Political tensions persisted recently, as both sides exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.

The legislative leader from the majority party, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".

Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume cannot be trusted.

The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.

The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the administration's second-in-command.

4. The US economy faces vulnerability

Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.

The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.

Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.

That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.

Conversely, experts indicate that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be more long-lasting.